This page, which I will update, aims to give some links to some of our AI work
1. May 2026. Measuring AI and some first results on AI and labour substitution. "Is Software Eating the World?Measuring the Progress and Diffusion of AI" presented at the AI and Economic Measurement, Conference, Spring 2026, Stanford. This paper argues:
a. AI will affect the economy as new AI services (hardware, software, data) are introduced into the economy.
b. one important measure of the potential for their use is prices of AI services
c. Like the price of hardware in the 1990s/2000s, AI service prices are falling very fast: 30% falls, quality-adjusted.
d. the effects on the labour market will depend on elasticities of substitution with labour: for all labour types together, past ICT was not very subsitutable.
2. March 2026. Shortened version of our technical paper below: Bontadini, Filippo Corrado, Carol Haskel, Jonathan Jona-Lasinio, Cecilia, 2026, is published as "AI as an Innovation in the Method of Innovation: Implications for Productivity Growth", AEA Papers and Proceedings 116 36–40 2026. 10.1257/pandp.20261036.
Link is here: American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings.
3. September 2025. Longer technical paper on AI and productivity AI as an Innovation in the Method of Innovation: Implications for Productivity Growth in the US and Europe.
Tweet thread describing our results.
Soumaya Keynes discussing our results.
4. June 2025. Markus Academy video.
5. April 2025. This Markus Academy video built on a speech I gave at the European Central Bank, here, at their conference in April 2025 "The transformative power of AI". Our results are updated since then, and those talks stress AI as a "general purpose technology". My view is now that one should regard it as both that, but also an "innovation in the process of innovation". Section 2 of this: AI as an Innovation in the Method of Innovation: Implications for Productivity Growth in the US and Europe gives more information.
