1. Launched in Washington on 14th October 2025.
2. Some highlights that caught my eye
3. First, the growth projections
a. they are revised up a bit from April's outlook but that is because US tariffs have turned out to be not as bad as was previously thought. IMF also remark that some of the bad effects of tariffs have been moderated as importers rush through imports in advance of tariff implementation, when they can.
b. The UK has a target of being the fastest growing economy in the G7 (G7 is Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US). Well in 2025, we will be 2nd fastest and 2026, 3rd according to this forecast.
c. The big story is the US is a huge outlier (aside from Spain). This is almost certainly driven by AI.
d. the IMF stress uncertainty. Here is the economic policy uncertainty index for the UK up until September 2025 (source: . Baker, Scott R., Bloom, Nick and Davis, October 15, 2025)
Not as high as in Brexit, but still well above average levels.
4. Inflation (the final columns)
a. here the news is not quite as good. Euro Area inflation will be 2.2 and 2.0 in 2025 and 2026, with the UK at 3.4 and 2.5, much higher.
b. the stickiness in inflation is likely due to the deteriorating labour market.
