Wednesday, 30 April 2025

US and UK TFP since the pandemic

 The BLS has just published an update on US labour and TFP growth.  Heres a graph of  private non-farm business. Red is TFP growth, dark blue is the contribution of capital intensity, light blue is contribution of labour composition.  Note the tremendous growth in TFP, red in the last two years.  



Lets zoom into the years since 2019: 



To get the same as possible data for the UK, I used data on UK market sector value added per hour, and market sector volume of capital services.  There is no recent labour composition that i could find. The UK labour share is about 0.59.  The UK picture since 2019 is below:




What do we see?

1. in the depths of the pandemic, 2020, both countries had high labour productivity (LP) growth, but with negative TFP in the US.

2. even in 2022, both countries had negative LP and TFP growth 

3. but it is amazing that US TFP growth in 2023 and 2024 has surged.  UK TFP and LP growth is tiny or negative over those years.