The Bank of England governor has written a very good letter after a reform MP suggested not paying interest on reserves. My thoughts.
1. Paying interest on reserves
a. reserves are accounts held by banks at the Central Bank (CB). They are an immediate source of liquidity. they have two purposes
i. Monetary policy. the CB pays Bank Rate on those reserves overnight. So they are the base of the pyramid of more long-term interest rates. As the govneor says
"Over time, we have been able to demonstrate that this approach reduces interest rate volatility at the short-end of the interest rate curve, and thus improves the efficiency of implementation of monetary policy, with real benefits for the economy as a whole."
ii. Financial stability. They are "what are called High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA). Assets such as gilts and other high-quality debt also qualify as HQLA". So if a Bank needs cash, it can sell these assets immediately. Remember: banks lend long and borrow short from depositors. So they are always potentially needing short term cash if their depositors suddenly want their money.
b. What is the optimal level of reserves? The CB could hold very few, like pre-07. But that was unstable, so for financial stability reasons, better to have large. But it's a free country
It follows that the overall level of reserves is driven by our financial stability objective rather than the monetary policy objective. However, it also follows that, as the overall regulatory requirement for banks is set in terms of high-quality liquid assets that can be readily converted into cash if needed, there is no requirement specifically on reserves. So, in steady state banks have choices over the amount of reserves they wish to hold.
c. Thus: what determines the demand for reserves? Or, how can the CB get banks to hold reserves? Two answers,
i. by paying interest.
ii. by mandating resserve levels. But this in effect freezes money so bad for lending.
d. So the Bank has to pay interest. And in a competitive banking sector, that interest is passed onto depositors: or, depositors give commercial banks their money after which commerical banks have to decide what to do with it, one of which would be giving it to CBs. So not paying interest is like a tax on banks which is likely ultimately a tax on depositors. Fine, but that's a fiscal policy decision.
e. What about QE and QT? This is when the Bank holds more reserves than necessary for the above arrangements. In the absnce of that, the costs/benefits are neutral. Why is that? The Bank pays interest on reserves. But the Bank owns bonds and so gets interest in. As Jochn Cochrane says, see link below, usually long term debt pays more than short term debt, so this works out.
(f. note a good Blog by John Cochrane on paying reserve interest: a few points he makes
"One reason given is that it would save the government money... In addition, interest on reserves is paid to a lot of foreign banks, and sending foreigners money so they can buy American goods is somehow out of fashion.
One answer: If you think that is a good and reasonable idea, here is a better one: stop paying interest on all Treasury debt. Reserves are just another form of government debt, so why stop there? That will generate $1 trillion per year, not in 10 years or so. And lots of foreigners hold Treasury debt too."
2. QE and QT
As the letter says:
"QE involves a different state of the world, where the central bank buys financial assets, thereby increasing the prices of these assets and reducing their yield. It thus has the effect of flattening the yield curve benefitting those who borrow at long maturities."
Let's unpack this. If you look at the vote that the MPC votes on it is the purchase of government bonds (gilts) by the issuance of CB reserves. That is, it is using reserves which pay a Bank Rate to buy gilts. This is swopping short dated financial assets for longer dated ones.
As the letter then says
"You have challenged the Bank’s approach to QT and whether it represents value for money. There are two main ways to look at value for money here, and it is important to keep them distinct. One – which fits the Bank’s statutory objectives – is to look at the economic costs and benefits and how they fit the Bank’s two objectives. The other is to look at the cost in terms of cash flow and the public finances, which is outside the Bank’s objectives but something that I recognise is important"
Then, righly it adds
" The first test is important but challenging. It requires a full set of alternative economic scenarios going back to 2009 when QE started and modelling what would have been the state of the economy in the absence of QE and QT. We have experienced major economic shocks during this period – the aftermath of the financial crisis, Covid, Ukraine. It is easy to forget the severe problems we faced with these shocks. Although the counterfactual is unknowable with any precision, most estimates indicate that QE provided very significant support to the UK economy, protecting both jobs and tax revenues.
"Your focus though is on the second test. Here, it is important to consider cash flows, as you indicate, and moreover the impact on the overall public cash position. While QE was being used as an active policy tool, and interest rates remained low, the cash flow was positive, totalling £124bn that was transferred from the Bank to the Exchequer between 2013 and 2022. Once interest rates increased, the cash flow started to reverse, something the Bank had said since the start would happen. Today the net positive cash flow stands at £34bn, but we expect it to go negative over the remaining lifetime of the policies on this basis of calculation."
Remember too that timing is unimportant, which is why stable and predictable is key
" An important point to bear in mind here is that we ought to expect that the cash flow will over time be the same regardless of whether we sell the assets or hold them to maturity. This is because the price discount on an active sale is simply equal to the present discounted value of the carry cost that would be incurred were the assets held to maturity. The timing of the cashflows, but not their overall size, is affected by whether or not there are active sales. By avoiding disrupting markets, our gradual and predictable approach to QT supports this."
That's the essence of the argument, but it continues with a detail concerning the cash flow, even though this isn't part of the Bank's objectives.
"But this is not the end of the story, though it is the end in most of the accounts of the cash flows expected. An important missing element is that successive UK Governments have issued more long-term debt (gilts) than those of other major economies. The average term of outstanding UK Government debt is around 14 years, compared to around 6-7 years in, for instance, the US, Germany and Canada. The Bank’s policy throughout QE was to buy equal amounts across the maturity distribution of gilts, to ensure that our operations were neutral for the gilt market. This means that the Bank now owns more long-term gilts, something that helps to explain why we are conducting more active sales (as we have a slower path for natural maturities). A consequence is that, with an upward sloping yield curve, we do have larger discounts (and would otherwise have larger carry costs) on our long-dated gilts. This has led some commentators to suggest that the Bank’s QT programme is more expensive than those of other countries
What does this mean? The Bank bought lots of long dated gilts. So, the Bank has a stock of lots of low coupon paying long dated gilts, which can only be sold to the market, now that the yield curve has risen, for a very low price i.e. at a losss. So it looks like the QT programme is "expensive" since there are lots of capital losses.
But there is a counter-argument.
"Because it issued much more long-term debt than other countries when interest rates were low and QE had flattened the yield curve, the UK gets a longer lasting benefit in the form of lower debt costs.
I must emphasise again that these cash flows are not a part of our objectives, but I recognise that we must, and do, have regard to value for money."